HK's GDP grows by 5.2% in Q3, notching best performance since 2021

The advance estimates on the city's economic growth forecast for the third quarter stand at 5.2% in real terms -- delivering the best performance since 2021.

Among them, investment-related components log the fastest growth.

The government says that has reflected the business sectors' optimism towards the city's economic prospects. The city's GDP in the first three quarters recorded a growth of 5.1% altogether. Exports and imports in Q3 -- both surged around 30% year-on-year. Catering -- up 3.1% while retail sectors observed a 17th consecutive month of expansion up 6.4% year-on-year.

FULL GOV PRESS RELEASE:

Advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product for third quarter of 2026

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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (November 3) the advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2026.

According to the advance estimates, GDP increased by 5.2% in real terms in the third quarter of 2026 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 4.2% in the second quarter.

Analysed by major GDP component, private consumption expenditure increased by 2.8% in real terms in the third quarter of 2026 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 2.9% in the second quarter.

Government consumption expenditure measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 1.7% in real terms in the third quarter of 2026 over a year earlier, after remaining virtually unchanged in the second quarter.

Gross domestic fixed capital formation rose by 7.3% in real terms in the third quarter of 2026 over a year earlier, faster than the increase of 3.7% in the second quarter.

Total exports of goods measured in national accounts terms grew further by 30.4% in real terms in the third quarter of 2026 over a year earlier, after the growth of 28.9% in the second quarter. Over the same period, imports of goods measured in national accounts terms grew by 29.9% in real terms, compared with the increase of 29.3% in the second quarter.

Exports of services rose by 4.3% in real terms in the third quarter of 2026 over a year earlier, after the increase of 3.2% in the second quarter. Imports of services increased by 5.6% in real terms in the third quarter of 2026, compared with the increase of 3.1% in the second quarter.

On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis, GDP increased by 1.9% in real terms in the third quarter of 2026 when compared with the second quarter.

Commentary

A Government spokesman said that the Hong Kong economy expanded robustly in the third quarter of 2026, underpinned by accelerating growth in exports and solid domestic demand. According to the advance estimates, real GDP grew further by 5.2% in the third quarter over a year earlier, up from the revised 4.2% growth in the preceding quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP rose visibly by 1.9%. For the first three quarters of 2026 combined, real GDP grew by 5.1% over a year earlier, the fastest growth for the corresponding period in five years.

Looking ahead, Hong Kong's economic outlook remains positive, with incoming data pointing to sustained growth momentum. Robust global artificial intelligence investment should continue to underpin Hong Kong's merchandise exports. Exports of services should also benefit from sustained growth in inbound tourism, vibrant cross-boundary traffic and active financial market activities.

Domestically, steady economic expansion, rising employment earnings and a positive business outlook should lend support to consumption and investment.

Nonetheless, persistent uncertainties in the external environment, particularly the developments surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and tighter monetary policies by many major central banks, warrant close monitoring.

The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the third quarter of 2026, as well as the revised GDP forecast for 2026, will be released on November 13, 2026.

Further information

The year-on-year percentage changes of GDP and selected major expenditure components in real terms from the third quarter of 2025 to the third quarter of 2026 are shown in Table 1.

When more data become available, the C&SD will compile revised figures on GDP. The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the third quarter of 2026 will be released at the C&SD website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/scode250.html) and the Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Component report (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1030001&scode=250) on November 13, 2026.

For enquiries about statistics on GDP by expenditure component, please contact the National Income Branch (1) of the C&SD (Tel: 3863 2727 or email: gdp-e@censtatd.gov.hk).