Economists predict HK's GDP growth could be 4% in 2026

The government has signalled it will raise its full-year economic growth forecast after stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year.

Some economists believe the city's GDP could expand by as much as 4% for 2026.

The government earlier estimates that the whole year GDP growth will stand between 2.5 and 3.5% but it earlier reveals that the growth rate will be revised upward.

Gary Ng, a senior economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking says that could be buoyed by strong global demand for AI-related products and increased government investment in infrastructure projects including the Northern Metropolis.

But the economist believes the growth rate in the second half of the year will be slower than the first half as global shipping disruptions and geopolitics could keep inflation elevated, making it difficult for interest rates to fall in the near term.

And that could weigh on consumer spending and the recovery of the property market.