What to watch at US midterms: battleground states, rural voters, etc

Key battleground states are now in focus as US President Donald Trump faces political test in the US midterm elections. Analysts say the war in Iran, tariff policies, energy and commodity costs -- and their impacts on household expenses and farmers' livelihoods -- could all play a role in shaping voters' decisions.

The US midterm elections have long been seen as a referendum on the sitting president's performance and public support. A Reuters poll late last month showed US President Donald Trump's approval rating stood at a mere 32%.

So all eyes now -- on whether the Democratic Party can wrest control of the House of Representatives as a Democratic takeover could put Trump's remaining two years in office on a much tighter leash -- making it much harder for Trump to push through his agenda.

Historical data show since 2010, the president's party lost control of the House in four midterm elections -- and lost Senate seats twice.

In this year's midterms, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are contested. If the Democrats retain their current 214 seats, and pick up four more, they will cross the 218-seat threshold to secure a majority.

In the 100-member Senate, 35 are up for grabs. Republicans currently have a 53-47 advantage. To wrestle partisan control, Democrats need to net four more seats.

Much hinges on whether Democrats could flip key battleground states from red to blue. The New York Times latest poll shows the Democrats now hold clear leads in five states -- Maine, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. The Democrats also have a narrow lead in Alaska, with Iowa also closely contested.

Trump reportedly won the presidency in 2024 with the backing of about 60% of rural voters. But that support is now under pressure because of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz which have kept global energy and fertiliser prices elevated.

And Trump's tariff policies have prompted some countries to cut back on purchases of agricultural products such as soybeans and beef from the US. Trump's tough immigration policies have also cut the supply of migrant labour many farms rely on.